Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 11

Gameweek 10 swiftly brought us back to reality as our recommendations gathered us a measly 39 points between them, with the trusty Boaz Myhill (8 points) the standout performer. Jamie Vardy (5) was our only goalscorer, whilst assists from Christian Eriksen (5), Toby Alderweireld (5) and Dimitri Payet (5) helped prevent us from complete disaster. Gameweek 11 will be different. Gameweek 11 will be better…

Defence

As always we begin the article with an analysis of our defensive options. Last weekend, 6 teams registered clean sheets; both Manchester clubs, West Brom, Watford, Sunderland (their first of the season) and Leicester (also their first of the season, earning themselves some free pizza from Claudio Ranieri in the process). What can we expect this weekend? Let’s see what the bookies think…

Team

Clean Sheet Odds

Implied chance

Tottenham

2

50.00%

Man City

2.1

47.62%

Everton

2.2

45.45%

Southampton

2.3

43.48%

Arsenal

2.62

38.17%

Man United

2.62

38.17%

Chelsea

2.88

34.72%

Newcastle

3

33.33%

Leicester

3.2

31.25%

Watford

3.2

31.25%

Stoke

3.5

28.57%

West Brom

3.6

27.78%

West Ham

3.6

27.78%

Crystal Palace

4

25.00%

Liverpool

4.4

22.73%

Swansea

6

16.67%

Bournemouth

6.5

15.38%

Sunderland

7.5

13.33%

Aston Villa

8

12.50%

Norwich

13

7.69%

Top of the rankings are Tottenham. 4 clean sheets this season, 1 goal conceded in their previous 2 outings, and a managerless Aston Villa with 1 goal in 3 rocking up to White Hart Lane equals a 50% chance of a shutout.

Vincent Kompany returned to steady the ship for Manchester City last weekend in the Manchester derby with City keeping their first clean sheet in all competitions since their captain succumbed to injury. With the big Belgian back martialing the Sky Blues backline, we fancy their chances (47%) of making it 2 in a row as they host Norwich, who failed to breach West Brom last time out, this weekend.

Everton (45%) and Southampton (43%) make up the Big 4 this weekend in defence with both sides having plum home ties against Sunderland and nouveau-whipping boys Bournemouth respectively. Can either side add to the 3 clean sheets they have already registered this season in Gameweek 11?

Manchester United and Arsenal (both 38%) have the joint-tightest defences in the league so far this season, along with City and Spurs, having conceded only 8 goals each. They both have away fixtures this weekend against Crystal Palace and Swansea respectively, but with both of those sides struggling to score goals lately, the big boys will certainly fancy their chances of registering defensive returns.

At the other end of the rankings, it is no surprise, given defensive form and fixtures, to see Bournemouth (15%), Sunderland (13%), Aston Villa (12%) and Norwich (7%). These 4 teams have kept 3 clean sheets between them this season in a combined 40 games. One word: AVOID.

Our recommendations for your back line this week; David de Gea, Vincent Kompany, Kyle Walker, Virgil van Dijk.

Attack

Red-hot and reliable Jamie Vardy, assist machine Christian Eriksen and the jewel in the FPL crown Dimitri Payet were our successful attacking recommendations last weekend as big-hitters Alexis Sanchez and Diego Costa blanked and let us down. What are the bookies suggesting for Gameweek 11? Let’s analyse..

Player

Goalscorer Odds

Implied chance

Harry Kane

2.05

48.78%

Romelu Lukaku

2.1

47.62%

Wilfried Bony

2.2

45.45%

Graziano Pelle

2.2

45.45%

Olivier Giroud

2.3

43.48%

Raheem Sterling

2.4

41.67%

Alexis Sanchez

2.43

41.15%

Diego Costa

2.45

40.82%

Sadio Mane

2.55

39.22%

Kevin de Bruyne

2.75

36.36%

Christian Eriksen

2.8

35.71%

Jamie Vardy

2.88

34.72%

Anthony Martial

2.95

33.90%

Saido Berahino

3

33.33%

Odion Ighalo

3

33.33%

Wayne Rooney

3.2

31.25%

Ross Barkley

3.3

30.30%

Aleksandar Mitrovic

3.3

30.30%

Christian Benteke

3.35

29.85%

Eden Hazard

3.4

29.41%

Mame Biram Diouf

3.4

29.41%

Ayoze Perez

3.75

26.67%

Georginio Wijnaldum

3.75

26.67%

Dwight Gayle

4

25.00%

Riyad Mahrez

4

25.00%

Dimitri Payet

4.2

23.81%

Glenn Murray

4.3

23.26%

Steven Fletcher

4.4

22.73%

Andre Ayew

4.9

20.41%

Rudy Gestede

5

20.00%

Dieumerci Mbokani

6

16.67%

Favourable home ties for the likes of Tottenham (Aston Villa), Southampton (Bournemouth), Everton (Sunderland) and Manchester City (Norwich) sees the bookies suggest that we need not look much further for attacking profits this gameweek. The attacking pinnacles of each of these sides are closely bunched when it comes to their odds of finding the back of the net this weekend; Harry Kane (48%) leads the way following his hattrick against Bournemouth last time out, with Romelu Lukaku (47%), Wilfried Bony and Graziano Pelle (both 45%) hot on the England striker’s tail. You wouldn’t go too far wrong in giving any of them the captain’s armband either.

Following this mouthwatering quartet, we get a mixture of midfield options from the same teams and potentially explosive strikers in other games. With Theo Walcott out injured for the foreseeable future, Olivier Giroud (43%) deserves our attention as the Arsenal attacking powerhouse rolls up to The Liberty Stadium. In the same game, Alexis Sanchez (41%) also warrants serious consideration given his recent form. Raheem Sterling (41%), Kevin de Bruyne (36%), Christian Eriksen (35%), Ross Barkley (30%) and Sadio Mane (39%) are all fine picks, whether you are looking to double up on a City/Spurs/Everton/Saints option or simply get some coverage.

Two titans of the English game clash at Stamford Bridge when Chelsea take on Liverpool. However, given the recent form of both sides, and the options elsewhere this weekend, even bad boy Diego Costa (40%) is hard to recommend. Balon D’Or Nominee (you heard it here first!) Jamie Vardy (34%) takes his in-form Leicester boys across the Midlands to face Tony Pulis and his defensively resolute West Brom. We don’t fancy trying to call this one..

We are finding it hard to look elsewhere, given the aforementioned 4 fixtures, however, we can’t ignore the lure of Fantasy goldmine Dimitri Payet. He’s only given a 23% chance of scoring by the bookies, and faces a resolute Watford side, but he’s the attacking fulcrum of a West Ham team that has scored at least twice in every Premier League away game this season.

Our recommendations for your attacking line-up this week; Graziano Pelle, Romelu Lukaku, Harry Kane, Sadio Mane, Raheem Sterling, Kevin de Bruyne, Dimitri Payet.

Our recommendations for your captain; Graziano Pelle and Raheem Sterling.

New to daily fantasy football? You have done the research and know the rules already from Fantasy Premier League. Start off by setting up your team in a free game with a £100 prize pot. Pick your team for gameweek 10 here!


Viktor Enoksen

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