Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 12

Weekly results getting you down? Team not following your instructions? Watching your rivals speed off into the distance? Not to worry,following a 61-point gameweek, we’re here with our latest preview to help you be a little less Jose Mourinho and a little more Manuel Pellegrini.

A late goal for Villa and an absolute howler from Joe Hart meant that we were robbed of 2 clean sheets from our defensive predictions in Gameweek 11. As a result, Kyle Walker and Vincent Kompany ended up with 2 points apiece, whilst David de Gea (9) and Virgil van Dijk (6) both produced the goods. With Gameweek 12 on the horizon, we analyse what the bookmakers have to offer for our Fantasy backlines…

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied Chance
Man United 1.67 59.88%
Man City 2.15 46.51%
Liverpool 2.3 43.48%
Southampton 2.35 42.55%
Chelsea 2.62 38.17%
Arsenal 2.75 36.36%
Leicester 2.75 36.36%
Bournemouth 3.2 31.25%
Norwich 3.25 30.77%
Swansea 3.7 27.03%
West Ham 3.75 26.67%
Everton 4 25.00%
Stoke 4 25.00%
Newcastle 4.33 23.09%
Sunderland 4.8 20.83%
Watford 5.25 19.05%
Crystal Palace 5.25 19.05%
Tottenham 7.5 13.33%
West Brom 7.5 13.33%
Aston Villa 7.5 13.33%

 

Manchester United aren’t scoring. But crucially, they aren’t conceding either. It’s 3 clean sheets in a row for The Red Devils in the Premier League (5 in all competitions) as they welcome West Brom to Old Trafford on Saturday. With just 10 goals in 11 games this season, the joint-second lowest in the league, The Baggies are certainly struggling to find the net. This is surely as “nailed-on” as a clean sheet gets in terms of form and fixture, and the bookies certainly agree, giving United a 59% chance of a shutout.

The blue side of Manchester (46%) occupies the 2nd spot in our rankings as they roll up to Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. 6 clean sheets in 11 bodes well for The Citizens, with Villa, like their aforementioned Midlands rivals, struggling to score, having found the back of the net just 10 times this term. Remi Garde certainly has a job on his hands, and the bookies predict a tough start for him this weekend. 

Jurgen Klopp will be looking to continue his positive start as Liverpool manager when he takes on Crystal Palace at Anfield on Monday night. A 2nd clean sheet of his tenure (43%) isn’t out of the question against an uncharacteristically goal-shy Palace (just 12 goals this season).

Meanwhile, Southampton (42%) will look to pile more misery on Sam Allardyce and his Sunderland side when they visit The Stadium of Light this weekend following their shutout against Bournemouth in Gameweek 11. Given their opposition, the bookies recommend that we avoid Watford (19%) who travel to Leicester (2nd highest scorers in the league), Crystal Palace (19%), a defensively sound Spurs (13%) who take on Arsenal in the North London Derby, West Brom and Aston Villa (both 13%).

Our recommendations for your back line this week:

David de Gea, Vincent Kompany, Kyle Alberto Moreno, Virgil van Dijk.

Take a bow if you selected Arouna Kone last weekend. A hattrick, an assist, and maximum bonus points. Many of you (like us) will have selected Romelu Lukaku as your Everton weapon of choice, and the big man didn’t let us down as he romped home with 14 points. Elsewhere, Messrs Pellè and Kane found the back of the net, whilst Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling each provided an assist to help us break the 60-point barrier for the gameweek. That being said, a new set of fixtures is fast approaching, so let’s analyse where attacking returns lie this coming weekend…

Player

Goalscorer odds

Implied chance

Wilfried Bony

2.14

46.73%

Jamie Vardy

2.2

45.45%

Olivier Giroud

2.25

44.44%

Christian Benteke

2.28

43.86%

Graziano Pellè

2.4

41.67%

Alexis Sanchez

2.4

41.67%

Anthony Martial

2.4

41.67%

Wayne Rooney

2.4

41.67%

Diego Costa

2.55

39.22%

Sadio Mane

2.75

36.36%

Kevin de Bruyne

2.75

36.36%

Raheem Sterling

2.88

34.72%

Romelu Lukaku

2.9

34.48%

Glenn Murray

2.9

34.48%

Riyad Mahrez

3

33.33%

Dieumerci Mbokani

3

33.33%

Harry Kane

3.1

32.26%

Philippe Coutinho

3.25

30.77%

Aleksandar Mitrovic

3.3

30.30%

Arouna Kone

3.5

28.57%

Dimitri Payet

3.75

26.67%

Andre Ayew

3.95

25.32%

Mame Biram Diouf

4

25.00%

Georginio Wijnaldum

4

25.00%

Steven Fletcher

4

25.00%

Rudy Gestede

4.25

23.53%

Odion Ighalo

4.33

23.09%

Christian Eriksen

5

20.00%

Willian

5.5

18.18%

Salomon Rondon

6.5

15.38%

Yohan Cabaye

7

14.29%

 

Ivory Coast marksman Wilfried Bony, fresh from netting against Sevilla midweek, leads the rankings this week with a 46% chance of scoring away against Aston Villa, who have conceded 20 goals already this season.

City’s charges are highly fancied by the bookmakers, with Kevin de Bruyne, rested in midweek, and Raheem Sterling afforded 36% and 34% chances respectively.

Leicester, and Jamie Vardy in particular, just cannot stop scoring. The surprise packages of the season so far, they enjoy home comforts this weekend as Watford rock up to The King Power Stadium. Whilst the visitors have been defensively sound this season, the bookies clearly favour Leicester, with Vardy (45%) and teammate Riyad Mahrez (33%) the most likely to find the net. Odion Ighalo, having played a part in all of Watford’s goals whilst he has been on the pitch this season, is the main threat for The Hornets (23%).

The North London derby on Sunday is shaping up to be a real treat, with both teams finding goalscoring form as of late. Olivier Giroud (44%), with 5 goals in his last 6 outings, Alexis Sanchez (41%) and Harry Kane (32%) are expected to be the main protagonists as Arsenal and Tottenham write the latest chapter in their fierce rivalry.

Saturday’s early kick off sees Bournemouth face Newcastle. Neither side has proven their defensive credibility this season (24 and 22 goals conceded respectively), so we can realistically expect the likes of Glenn Murray (34%) and Aleksandar Mitrovic (30%) to profit. Meanwhile, Liverpool ends the Gameweek on Monday night as they entertain Crystal Palace. After dismantling Chelsea, Fantasy managers could do far worse than include the likes of Christian Benteke (43%) and Philippe Coutinho (30%), who both netted last time out.

Elsewhere, Southampton duo Graziano Pellè (41%) and Sadio Mane (36%) face a Sunderland side thrashed 6-2 by Everton last week, whilst goals are expected between West Ham and the aforementioned Blues, where Romelu Lukaku (34%), Arouna Kone (28%), and Dimitri Payet (26%) are all worthy of consideration.

 

Our recommendations for your attacking line-up this week; Graziano Pellè, Romelu Lukaku, Jamie Vardy, Philippe Coutinho, Riyad Mahrez, Kevin de Bruyne, Alexis Sanchez.

Our recommendations for your captain; Jamie Vardy and Kevin de Bruyne.

 

New to daily fantasy football? You have done the research and know the rules already from Fantasy Premier League. Start off by setting up your team in a free game with a £100 prize pot. Pick your team for gameweek 10 here!


Eirik Henriksen

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