Bookies Advantage: Gameweek 13

A goal and an assist from Diego Costa (9 points), 2 assists from Heung-min Son (7), coupled with clean sheets from Marcus Alonso (7) and Ben Foster (6) helped the Bookies’ Advantage squad to a total of 42 points for Gameweek 12, slightly above the average of 40 in a low-scoring round that saw the majority of big hitters fail to fire.

With the next round of Premier League action taking place this weekend, read on as we dissect the odds in order to help you make those all important transfer, squad selection and captaincy decisions…

To see who won the Beat the Bookies competition, scroll down to the end of the post. You can also set up your own team and take on the bookmakers. 

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Chance of a clean sheet
Liverpool 1.83 55%
Man City 2 50%
Man Utd 2.2 45%
Arsenal 2.3 43%
Leicester 2.5 40%
Chelsea 2.6 38%
Southampton 2.66 38%
West Brom 2.8 36%
Hull 3.2 31%
Watford 3.25 31%
Swansea 3.55 28%
Crystal Palace 3.9 26%
Everton 4 25%
Stoke 4 25%
Middlesbrough 4.55 22%
Tottenham 5.7 18%
West Ham 7.5 13%
Bournemouth 9.6 10%
Burnley 12 8%
Sunderland 18 6%

Liverpool top the bookies’ defensive table for Gameweek 13, with a home game against Sunderland offering them a 55% chance of a clean sheet. Whilst the Reds have only registered 1 shutout at Anfield this season, the Black Cats have blanked in half of their away games (3 out of 6) and only score 0.67 goals per game away from home on average. As a result, Dejan Lovren, who has scored twice in the league this season already, gets the nod from us and takes his place in our starting XI.

Manchester rivals City (50%) and United (45%) rank 2nd and 3rd this week respectively. Pep Guardiola’s men travel to Burnley for Saturday’s early kick off, with the bookmakers’ odds suggesting the Clarets will play conservatively when the Sky Blue attacking juggernaut rolls into town. The Citizens are only conceding an average of 1 goal per game away from home, so defensive returns could be on the cards for John Stones, who provides good value in defence at a price of £5.0m. Meanwhile, Jose Mourinho’s men entertain West Ham at Old Trafford on Sunday. The Hammers have been goal-shy of late, scoring only 3 times in their last 4 outings, so the Red Devils will be confident of recording their third home clean sheet of the campaign, given that they only concede 0.83 goals per game at home on average. David de Gea starts between the sticks for our side.

Arsenal (43%) rank fourth in terms of defensive prospects for this weekend ahead of an Emirates clash against Bournemouth. With the Cherries only averaging 0.67 goals per game on the road this term, as well as having blanked 3 times on their travels, Arsene Wenger, like Jose Mourinho, will be looking for his troops to record their third home clean sheet in the Premier League this season. Carl Jenkinson is currently deputising for the injured Hector Bellerin at right back for the Gunners and provides a value route into their defence at £5.0m.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Stoke’s budget friendly shot stopper Lee Grant (£4.0m – 25%) as our backup keeper, with WBA’s Gareth McAuley (£4.5m – 36%) and Swansea’s Jordi Amat (£4.0m – 28%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Bournemouth (10% – away to Arsenal), Burnley (8% – home to Man City) and Sunderland (6% – away to Liverpool) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Anytime goalscorer odds Chance of scoring
Sergio Aguero 1.65 61%
Daniel Sturridge 1.68 60%
Sadio Mane 1.9 53%
Roberto Firmino 1.93 52%
Olivier Giroud 1.97 51%
Zlatan Ibrahimovic 2 50%
Alexis Sanchez 2.02 50%
Philippe Coutinho 2.06 49%
Diego Costa 2.08 48%
Theo Walcott 2.4 42%
Charlie Austin 2.5 40%
Marcus Rashford 2.55 39%
Kevin de Bruyne 2.6 38%
Christian Benteke 2.6 38%
Islam Slimani 2.62 38%
Troy Deeney 2.7 37%
Jamie Vardy 2.7 37%
Eden Hazard 2.75 36%
Salomon Rondon 2.95 34%
Wayne Rooney 2.95 34%
Yaya Toure 3 33%
Odion Ighalo 3 33%
Romelu Lukaku 3.05 33%
Raheem Sterling 3.1 32%
Borja Baston 3.1 32%
Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.15 32%
Riyad Mahrez 3.25 31%
Wilfried Bony 3.3 30%
Nathan Redmond 3.35 30%
Pedro 3.5 29%
James Milner 3.5 29%
Marko Arnautovic 3.6 28%
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 3.6 28%
Nacer Chadli 3.75 27%
Dieumerci Mbokani 3.75 27%
Mesut Ozil 3.8 26%
Juan Mata 3.85 26%
Ilkay Gundogan 3.85 26%
Dusan Tadic 3.9 26%
Callum Wilson 4 25%
Alvaro Negredo 4 25%
Harry Kane 4.2 24%
Son Heung-Min 4.33 23%
Andre Gray 4.5 22%
Jermain Defoe 4.6 22%
Joshua King 4.7 21%
Sam Vokes 4.8 21%
Cristhian Stuani 4.8 21%
Andros Townsend 4.9 20%
Yannick Bolasie 5 20%
Robert Snodgrass 5.1 20%
Wilfried Zaha 5.2 19%
Michail Antonio 5.25 19%
Etienne Capoue 5.25 19%
Dimitri Payet 5.5 18%
Andre Ayew 5.55 18%
Matt Phillips 5.6 18%
Ross Barkley 5.75 17%
Roberto Pereyra 6 17%
Junior Stanislas 6.1 16%
Christian Eriksen 6.5 15%
Gerard Deulofeu 6.5 15%
Duncan Watmore 7.5 13%
Adama Traore 7.5 13%
Ryan Mason 8 13%

Ahead of a trip to Premier League new boys Burnley, Sergio Aguero tops the bookies’ attacking rankings with a 61% chance of finding the back of the net this weekend. City’s Argentine striker is the second top scorer in the league at present with 8 goals to his name, 6 of which have come on the road. And whilst the Clarets have been resolute at Turf Moor, conceding just 6 goals in 7 games, they have also leaked 6 goals in their last 2 outings. As a result, Aguero once again straps on the captain’s armband for our squad.

Joining Aguero up front in our starting XI are Zlatan Ibrahimovic (50%) and Charlie Austin (40%). Manchester United’s mercurial Swede returned to form last time out by bagging a brace against Swansea, and this weekend’s home clash against West Ham, who are conceding an average of 2.33 goals per game on their travels this season, provides Ibra with a good opportunity to get on the scoresheet once again. Austin, meanwhile, will be looking to get on the scoresheet when Southampton welcome Everton, who have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 away games, to St Mary’s. The former QPR striker has netted 5 goals in 8 Premier League starts for the Saints this term, better than a 1 in 2 ratio, and with penalty duties also in his locker, Austin’s contribution could well prove to be decisive this Sunday.

Some viable options up front the we have had to overlook include Daniel Sturridge (60%) and Olivier Giroud (51%) due to the lack of security surrounding their starting positions, along with Diego Costa (48%), who was unfortunately too heavy on the budget this week.

A plum Anfield clash against Sunderland sees us double up on Liverpool midfielders, with Sadio Mane (53%) and Roberto Firmino (52%) both making our starting XI. With the Reds averaging 3.4 goals per home game this term and the Black Cats yet to register a clean sheet on their travels, there could be significant profits for those who double, or even triple, up on attacking assets from Jurgen Klopp’s side. Premier League games at Anfield (5 so far this season) have been solid sources of points for both Mane and Firmino, with the Senegalese speedster scoring 5 and assisting twice, whilst his Brazilian teammate has bagged 3 times and set up a trio of goals for his teammates too.

Gylfi Sigurdsson (32%) takes his place in the middle of the park for our squad ahead of the welcome of Crystal Palace to South Wales on Saturday. The Icelandic international has shown his consistency of late, registering 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 outings, and will have every chance of being amongst the points again with the Eagles yet to keep a clean sheet this season, in addition to conceding an average of 1.83 goals per game on their travels. OOP midfielder Nathan Redmond (30%) completes our starting XI for Gameweek 13 as we double up on the Saints’ attack ahead of their game against Everton. Finally, Etienne Capoue takes his customary first place on our subs bench, with his goal and subsequent 10-point haul last time out a welcome return to form for the ultra-value £4.5m midfielder.

The bookmakers also fancy the chances of Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez (50%), Belgian duo Kevin de Bruyne (38%) and Eden Hazard (36%), Yaya “back from the wilderness” Toure (33%), Riyad Mahrez (32%) and Raheem Sterling (31%), but sextet all prove to be too expensive to acquire for our squad this weekend, whilst Philippe Coutinho (49%) is unobtainable due to the fact we already have 3 Liverpool players and Theo Walcott (42%) is overlooked due to injury/rotation/pregnant wife about to give birth concerns.

Team of the Week

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Viktor Enoksen

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