Bookies Advantage: Gameweek 23

A Roberto Firmino double (15 points) and a last minute penalty from Alexis Sanchez (7) helped the Bookies’ Advantage squad to a respectable 56 points in Gameweek 22.

With the Premier League now back on the calendar after a weekend of domestic cup action, read on as we analyse the clean sheet and anytime goalscorer odds for Gameweek 23 to help you with those all important transfer, captaincy and squad selection decisions…


Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet
Man Utd 1.67 60%
Arsenal 1.91 52%
Tottenham 2 50%
Middlesbrough 2.55 39%
Man City 2.6 38%
Bournemouth 2.88 35%
West Brom 2.92 34%
Southampton 3 33%
Leicester 3.1 32%
Burnley 3.3 30%
Everton 3.35 30%
Liverpool 3.4 29%
Stoke 3.5 29%
Swansea 3.65 27%
Chelsea 3.95 25%
Crystal Palace 4.6 22%
West Ham 7.5 13%
Sunderland 8.5 12%
Hull 13 8%
Watford 14 7%

A home clash against Hull – their third meeting with the Tigers in a matter of weeks – sees Manchester United top the bookmakers’ defensive rankings with a 60% chance of keeping a clean sheet. The Red Devils beat Hull 2-0 at Old Trafford in the League Cup recently, although they have only kept one clean sheet in their last six home games in the league. Still, Hull have lost their last six on the road, blanking in five of those, so Phil Jones looks a good shout for a shoutout on Wednesday evening.

Arsenal (52%) are the second likeliest team to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 23 when they entertain Watford on Tuesday. Three clean sheets in five for the Gunners, coupled with two blanks in the last three outings for the Hornets, sees us select Laurent Koscielny, who has earned maximum bonus points in his last pair of appearances, in our starting XI.

Tottenham (50%) and Middlesbrough (39%) rank third and fourth ahead of games away to Sunderland and at home to West Brom respectively. Mauricio Pochettino’s men have kept clean sheets in two of their last three games and take on a Sunderland side with the joint-second poorest attack in the top flight, having scored just 20 goals in 22 games. Boro, meanwhile, have recorded three shutouts in their last five at The Riverside, and with visitors West Brom only having scored 9 in their 11 away games this term, there is a decent possibility of adding to their solid home defensive record. Kevin Wimmer and Victor Valdes offer good value and start for our squad.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Stoke’s budget friendly Lee Grant (£4.0m – 29%) as our backup keeper, with Southampton’s Jack Stephens (£4.0m – 33%) and Swansea’s Stephen Kingsley (£4.0m – 27%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Sunderland (12% – home to Tottenham), Hull (8% – away to Man United) and Watford (7% – away to Arsenal) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring
Zlatan Ibrahimovic 1.53 65%
Olivier Giroud 1.72 58%
Alexis Sanchez 1.8 56%
Harry Kane 1.8 56%
Sergio Aguero 1.84 54%
Romelu Lukaku 2.38 42%
Callum Wilson 2.43 41%
Son Heung-Min 2.5 40%
Dele Alli 2.62 38%
Diego Costa 2.65 38%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2.65 38%
Nolito 2.65 38%
Paul Pogba 2.8 36%
Alex Iwobi 2.88 35%
Daniel Sturridge 2.9 34%
Kevin de Bruyne 2.95 34%
Christian Benteke 3.05 33%
Alvaro Negredo 3.05 33%
Christian Eriksen 3.1 32%
Jamie Vardy 3.2 31%
Fernando Llorente 3.25 31%
Divock Origi 3.3 30%
Salomon Rondon 3.3 30%
Mesut Ozil 3.4 29%
Sam Vokes 3.4 29%
Yaya Toure 3.45 29%
Raheem Sterling 3.45 29%
Roberto Firmino 3.55 28%
Eden Hazard 3.6 28%
Philippe Coutinho 3.65 27%
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 3.65 27%
Ahmed Musa 3.7 27%
Peter Crouch 3.75 27%
Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.75 27%
Andy Carroll 3.8 26%
Marko Arnautovic 3.9 26%
Jermain Defoe 3.95 25%
Nathan Redmond 3.95 25%
Dusan Tadic 3.95 25%
Shinji Okazaki 4 25%
Cristhian Stuani 4.1 24%
Kevin Mirallas 4.1 24%
Junior Stanislas 4.2 24%
Adam Lallana 4.5 22%
Gerard Deulofeu 4.5 22%
Pedro 4.6 22%
Nacer Chadli 4.6 22%
Michail Antonio 4.6 22%
Troy Deeney 4.9 20%
Ross Barkley 4.9 20%
Yohan Cabaye 5.3 19%
Willian 5.4 19%
James Milner 5.5 18%
Victor Anichebe 5.5 18%
Manuel Lanzini 5.5 18%
Andros Townsend 5.8 17%
Matt Phillips 6.25 16%
Adama Traore 6.4 16%
Steven Defour 7 14%
Cesc Fabregas 7 14%
Emre Can 8.5 12%
Robert Snodgrass 8.5 12%
Tom Carroll 10 10%
Etienne Capoue 10 10%
Ryan Mason 10 10%

Having scored 10 times in his last 11 Premier League games, Zlatan Ibrahimovic tops the attacking billing for Gameweek 23 with a 65% chance of scoring when Hull visit Old Trafford on Wednesday night. With the Tigers losing each of their last six on their travels, conceding 13 over that stretch, there’s every chance the big Swede can continue his fine form.

Joining Ibrahimovic in our front three this weekend are Olivier Giroud (58%) and Callum Wilson (41%). It’s four goals in his last five for Giroud, representing, like Zlatan, another player in good form as a leaky away defence comes to town – the Hornets have conceded 16 in their last six on the road. Despite not being in red hot form – he has found the net once in his last three in the top flight – Wilson’s high ranking by the bookies is down to his opponents, Crystal Palace, who are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season, and also conceded three last time out at West Ham.

Up front, the bookies also fancy the chances of Harry Kane (56%), Sergio Aguero (54%) and Romelu Lukaku (42%), but we overlook the trio due to budget constraints, in turn allowing us to spend big on a heavy-hitting midfield.

Our first pick in the middle of the park is Alexis Sanchez (56%). The Chilean is the joint top scorer in the league with 15 goals and has notched in each of his last three league outings, as well as supplying two assists in an FA Cup cameo appearance at the weekend. Facing the same questionable Watford defence as his teammate Olivier Giroud, we double up on Arsenal’s attacking assets.

Dele Alli (38%) and Paul Pogba (36%) join Alexis in our starting XI. The young Englishman is currently the form player in the Premier League, having racked up eight goals and an assist in his last six games. A trip to The Stadium of Light, where Sunderland have conceded five in their last two, offers Alli the potential to continue his fine run. Pogba, meanwhile, will hope that the visit of Hull gives him the chance to add to the four goals he has scored for United in the top flight this season.

Raheem Sterling (29%) completes our starting lineup ahead of his trip to East London to take on West Ham. The English speedster has registered two goals and two assists in his last eight outings in all competitions for the Citizens, and having battered the Hammers 5-0 in the FA Cup earlier this month, hopes will be high for a repeat in the league. The emergence of Swansea’s Tom Carroll (10%) as a budget midfielder (£4.5m), with more attacking potential than the ever-present Etienne Capoue, sees a change in our squad as the Swansea man takes the first spot on our substitutes bench.

The bookmakers also rate Heung-Min Son (40%), but his lack of starting security sees him omitted from our squad, whilst Henrikh Mkhitaryan (38%), Nolito (38%), Kevin de Bruyne (34%) and Christian Eriksen (32%) are all too heavy on the budget. Alex Iwobi (35%) is overlooked as we have already maxed out our allocation of three players from Arsenal.


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