Bookies Advantage: GW37

Has the Premier League saved the best for last? The final, and biggest, double gameweek of the season is now upon us, with 12 teams – Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal, Leicester, West Ham, Newcastle, Swansea, Southampton, Brighton and Huddersfield – all playing twice, so read on as we analyse the odds for the clean sheet and anytime goalscorer markets in order to help you with those all-important captaincy and squad selection decisions…

Clean Sheet Odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet

Man City

1.53 & 1.57

87%

Tottenham

2.10 & 1.87

76%

Chelsea

3.4 & 1.62

73%

Man Utd

2.38 & 2.7

63%

Arsenal

2.3 & 3.4

60%

Southampton

3 & 3

56%

Leicester

3.2 & 4.6

46%

Swansea

4.45 & 3.3

46%

West Ham

4.2 & 5.5

38%

Newcastle

3.5 & 15

33%

Watford

3.05

33%

Bournemouth

3.1

32%

Everton

3.4

29%

Stoke

3.4

29%

Crystal Palace

3.6

28%

Brighton

5.2 & 17

24%

Liverpool

4.5

22%

Burnley

6.6

15%

Huddersfield

23 & 13

12%

West Brom

8.6

12%

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Champions Manchester City top the bookies’ defensive rankings with an 87% chance of keeping a clean sheet in home games against Huddersfield and Brighton. Fantasy managers could hardly ask for a better pair of double gameweek fixtures for Pep Guardiola’s side, with the Seagulls the worst traveling attack in the top flight, having scored just 9 goals on the road, whilst the Terriers haven’t fared much better, notching 11 times (3rd worst). With 3 clean sheets in their last 5 at home, a double shutout looks likely for the Citizens, and, with rumors that Kyle Walker’s season is now over through injury, we opt for Danilo, who offers a cut-price route into the City defence. Furthermore, the Brazilian poses a significant attacking threat – he has scored and assisted twice in only 1160 minutes of Premier League action this term.

A trip to West Brom followed by the hosting of Newcastle sees Tottenham (76%) rank second for Gameweek 37. Mauricio Pochettino’s men are the third tightest defence in the division, having conceded just 31 goals this campaign. Their opponents are 2 of the more goal-shy members of the Premier League, with the Magpies averaging 1 goal per game, whilst the Baggies manage to score just 0.83. With fitness concerns still surrounding Danny Rose, Ben Davies, who has 2 goals and 7 assists to his name this season, is our choice from the Spurs back line.

Chelsea (73%) and Manchester United (63%) complete the top 4 defensive prospects. A home game against Liverpool is far from ideal for the Blues, although who knows what effects a Champions League hangover could bring, but it is their second game, a Stamford Bridge encounter with Huddersfield that really tickles the taste buds – the Terriers have blanked in 12 of their 17 away games in the top flight. United, meanwhile, face a Brighton side that have failed to score in 4 of their last 7 games in all competitions, although a trip to West Ham next Thursday may not prove too easy given the Hammers have scored in all but one of their last 18 in the league. Cesar Azpilicueta and David de Gea both offer starting security and are the top scoring defender and goalkeeper in the official FPL game, with 166 and 163 points respectively, so we find no reason to look past either.

On the bench, Joel Pereira (63%) provides goalkeeping backup should David de Gea not feature, whilst Connor Roberts (46%) could provide a bargain bucket double gameweek option if Swansea’s injury problems in defence persist. Adrian Mariappa (6%) welcomes Newcastle to Vicarage Road on Saturday and offers us the cheapest nailed on defensive option in the game having started each of the last 12 for the Hornets.

Our defensive differential this gameweek is Leighton Baines (29%). Although he only has one game, the Everton left back has produced returns in 4 of his 7 appearances since returning from injury (2 assists, 4 clean sheets and 8 bonus points), including 2 double-digit hauls, whilst his opponents this weekend, Southampton, have blanked in 3 of their last 4 away from home.

Goalscorer Odds

 ** The anytime goalscorer odds for the second round of games this gameweek are yet to be released, so, as we did previously, we will estimate a player’s implied chance of scoring over 2 games by taking his anytime goalscorer odds for his first fixture and replicating those for his second fixture. **

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring

Harry Kane

1.65 & 2nd game

84%

Gabriel Jesus

1.7 & 2nd game

83%

Raheem Sterling

1.85 & 2nd game

79%

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

1.95 & 2nd game

76%

Jamie Vardy

2.3 & 2nd game

68%

Alexandre Lacazette

2.3 & 2nd game

68%

Leroy Sane

2.33 & 2nd game

67%

Romelu Lukaku

2.43 & 2nd game

65%

Son Heung-Min

2.5 & 2nd game

64%

Alvaro Morata

2.62 & 2nd game

62%

Olivier Giroud

2.62 & 2nd game

62%

Bernardo Silva

2.6 & 2nd game

62%

Marko Arnautovic

2.8 & 2nd game

59%

Charlie Austin

2.87 & 2nd game

58%

Eden Hazard

2.85 & 2nd game

58%

Alexis Sanchez

3.2 & 2nd game

53%

Jesse Lingard

3.25 & 2nd game

52%

Kevin de Bruyne

3.25 & 2nd game

52%

Chicharito

3.3 & 2nd game

51%

Christian Eriksen

3.45 & 2nd game

50%

David Silva

3.39 & 2nd game

50%

Aaron Ramsey

3.4 & 2nd game

50%

Jordan Ayew

3.55 & 2nd game

48%

Glenn Murray

3.55 & 2nd game

48%

Dele Alli

3.65 & 2nd game

47%

Willian

3.8 & 2nd game

46%

Riyad Mahrez

3.75 & 2nd game

46%

Mohamed Salah

2.38

42%

Dusan Tadic

4.25 & 2nd game

42%

Mesut Ozil

4.25 & 2nd game

42%

Paul Pogba

4.75 & 2nd game

38%

Callum Wilson

2.7

37%

Kenedy

4.9 & 2nd game

37%

Jermain Defoe

2.8

36%

Demarai Gray

5.5 & 2nd game

33%

Pascal Gross

5.8 & 2nd game

32%

Cenk Tosun

3.2

31%

Wilfried Zaha

3.35

30%

Joshua King

3.35

30%

Chris Wood

3.5

29%

Mame Biram Diouf

3.6

28%

Andy King

7 & 2nd game

27%

Roberto Firmino

3.75

27%

Xherdan Shaqiri

3.75

27%

Troy Deeney

3.75

27%

Dwight Gayle

3.85

26%

Wayne Rooney

4.2

24%

Steve Mounie

8 & 2nd game

23%

Sadio Mane

4.5

22%

Ashley Barnes

4.5

22%

Sam Vokes

4.5

22%

Salomon Rondon

4.5

22%

Richarlison

4.5

22%

Ayoze Perez

4.7

21%

Jay Rodriguez

4.9

20%

Luka Milivojevic

5

20%

Theo Walcott

5

20%

Will Hughes

5.5

18%

Alex Pritchard

13 & 2nd game

15%

Joe Allen

9

11%

After scoring in back-to-back games against Brighton and Watford, Harry Kane tops the bookies’ attacking ranks for the second gameweek running with an 84% chance of scoring. Favourable fixtures away to rock bottom West Brom and at home to a Newcastle side with nothing left to play for boost his credentials for the captaincy. The Baggies, on recent form, are the worst home defence in the top flight, conceding 14 times in their last 6 at The Hawthorns, whilst Rafa Benitez’s men have kept just 2 clean sheets away from home this season. As a result, Kane once again straps on our captain’s armband.

Snapping at Kane’s heels Gabriel Jesus (83%). City’s samba star has found the net in each of his last 4 starts, whilst also providing 2 assists. Home games against Huddersfield and Brighton, who are both fighting to survive having slid down the table after positive starts, could hardly be more appealing as Pep’s side go in search of more Premier League records.

Jamie Vardy (68%) completes our strike force. Despite Leicester’s woeful form, the Englishman has still managed to score in 8 of his last 12 outings, meaning that home games against the leaky travelling defences of West Ham and Arsenal could pay dividends – the last time either side kept a clean sheet away from home in the league was in Gameweek 18, when the Hammers won 3-0 at Stoke.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, but the Arsenal striker weighs slightly too heavily on the budget for us to acquire this time around.

In midfield, Raheem Sterling (79%) and Heung-Min Son (64%) furnish us with double-ups on the Manchester City and Tottenham attacks respectively. Sterling has continued his superb form since returning from injury 6 games ago, scoring 3 goals and setting up a further 7, meaning he has now been involved in an impressive 35 Premier League goals for the Citizens this term (18 goals, 17 assists). Son, meanwhile, has 12 goals and 7 assists for the Lillywhites this season, and 6 double-digit returns remind us of his potential to produce explosive hauls.

Marko Arnautovic (59%) and Jesse Lingard (52%) complete our starting XI, with both players set to enjoy double gameweeks – lei/MUN and bri/whm respectively. The Hammers’ Austrian maverick has 3 goals and an assist in his last 5 outings, and is playing OOP as a striker to further his appeal, whilst Lingard has matched Arnautovic for FPL points this season (both sit on 124) after producing 8 goals and 6 assists. Looking at their opposition, Brighton, Leicester and West Ham have all conceded at least 1.5 goals per game over the last 6, whilst United, normally so defensively resolute, have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 9 attempts.

Andy King (27%) takes the first spot on our bench, with a double gameweek away to Bournemouth and at home to Southampton, along with his kindness on the purse strings, making him a solid enabler for our squad.

For the double gameweek, the bookies also rate Manchester City duo Leroy Sane and Bernardo Silva, but we have already maxed out our allocation of 3 assets from the champions, whilst Eden Hazard and Alexis Sanchez prove too expensive for our side.

Our attacking differential for this penultimate set of fixtures is Dele Alli (47%). The England attacker has 4 goals and 3 assists from his last 6 starts, whilst he has already produced fantasy returns against both of this gameweeks opponents earlier in the campaign, scoring against Newcastle and providing an assist against West Brom.

Bookies Dream Team

bookies-37

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Good luck with your fantasy teams this weekend!

May the odds be with you 🙏

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategizing and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.


Eirik Henriksen

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