Bookie’s Advantage GW7

With Gameweek 6 done and dusted, and the midweek Capital One Cup games out of the way, where all Premier League teams except Watford featured, we can now look ahead to what the odds are telling us about Gameweek 7.

Defence

Chelsea, West Brom, Bournemouth, Swansea, Everton and Tottenham chalked up clean sheets in Gameweek 6, as the heretofore rock solid Manchester City defence conceded it’s first goals of the Premier League season. Only 3 of those teams (Bournemouth, Swansea and Tottenham) were given more than a 30% chance of a clean sheet by the bookies, whilst our recommendations were hit and miss, with poor performances from Simon Mignolet (2 points) and Aleksandr Kolarov (0) balanced out by Craig Dawson (6) and Simon Francis (8). Let’s now analyse the bookies offerings from a defensive perspective for the upcoming Gameweek 7.

Team

Clean Sheet Odds

Implied chance

Man United

1.73

57.80%

Liverpool

2.05

48.78%

Chelsea

2.4

41.67%

Southampton

2.5

40.00%

Everton

2.9

34.48%

Watford

3

33.33%

Arsenal

3

33.33%

West Ham

3

33.33%

Man City

3.1

32.26%

Stoke

3.2

31.25%

Crystal Palace

3.3

30.30%

Bournemouth

3.4

29.41%

West Brom

3.4

29.41%

Swansea

3.8

26.32%

Norwich

4.2

23.81%

Tottenham

5.5

18.18%

Newcastle

5.75

17.39%

Leicester

5.8

17.24%

Aston Villa

7

14.29%

Sunderland

11

9.09%

Despite conceding 5 goals in their last 3 Premier League games, a home clash with goal-shy Sunderland sees Manchester United sit atop the rankings (57%) for clean sheet chances this weekend. Owners of David de Gea and Chris Smalling should field them confidently, although Matteo Darmian’s substitution at half-time against Southampton for tactical reasons may be a cause for concern. United will be looking for their 4th clean sheet of the season, having opened the campaign with 3 shut-outs on the bounce.

Liverpool are ranked second (48%) for the second consecutive gameweek as they welcome Aston Villa to Anfield. Like United, Liverpool started the season with 3 clean sheets from their 3 opening games, but have since conceded 7 goals in 3. Aston Villa failed to score at home against West Brom last weekend, so the Reds will be hoping they can regain some of their early-season defensive resolve. All eyes will be on Brendan Rodgers’ team selection on Saturday, with the popular Joe Gomez dropped against Norwich, whilst Dejan Lovren also lost his spot in the backline. Simon Mignolet, Nathaniel Clyne and Martin Skrtel offer the safest routes into the Liverpool defence at present, but Alberto Moreno provides an intriguing option having notched 8 points against the Canaries, despite not keeping a clean sheet.

On the back of 2 consecutive clean sheets (against Maccabi and Arsenal), Chelsea (41%) have the third highest chance of a clean sheet this weekend according to the bookmakers. A trip to the Northeast to face a Newcastle side with just 3 goals in 6 Premier League games this season means things look bright for the Blues rearguard on Saturday, with Asmir Begovic, Cesar Azpilicueta, and Kurt Zouma all looking enticing from a Fantasy Premier League perspective.

Southampton (40%) welcome Swansea to St Mary’s, with the Welsh side failing to find the net in their last 2 games, whilst we feel that Manchester City’s chances of a clean sheet (32%) depend on the fitness and availability of captain Vincent Kompany. West Brom (29%) and Everton (34%) have kept 4 and 3 clean sheets respectively this seaso, so a low-scoring affair could be on the cards when they meet at The Hawthorns on Monday night. On the other hand, goals are expected in the matchups between Leicester (17%) and Arsenal (33%), and Stoke (31%) and Bournemouth (29%), so we would recommend looking elsewhere for defensive options, whilst it is hard to recommend Tottenham (18%) defenders, despite their recent good form, by virtue of the fact they host Manchester City, or any players from the porous backlines of Newcastle (17%), Aston Villa (14%) or Sunderland (9%).

Our recommendations for your back line this week; Asmir Begovic, Chris Smalling, Alberto Moreno, Jose Fonte.

Attacking

From the bookies odds, only 1 player ranked in the top 10 from last weekend managed to find the back of the net (Callum Wilson). Sergio Aguero, Christian Benteke and Harry Kane all continued to frustrate their owners, whilst Riyad Mahrez continued his great form, Eden Hazard notched his first goal of the season, and the bandwagons that are Anthony Martial and Odion Ighalo gathered pace. Meanwhile, only the aforementioned Messrs Wilson and Mahrez produced returns from our recommendations, as attacking consistency continues to elude most Fantasy Football managers. Nevertheless, we continue to analyse what the mathematical whizzes have calculated in order to try and improve our frontline fortunes this weekend.

Player

Goalscorer Odds

Implied chance

Wayne Rooney

2

50.00%

Anthony Martial

2.05

48.78%

Christian Benteke

2.2

45.45%

Daniel Sturridge

2.2

45.45%

Sergio Aguero

2.3

43.48%

Olivier Giroud

2.4

41.67%

Danny Ings

2.5

40.00%

Radamel Falcao

2.55

39.22%

Theo Walcott

2.75

36.36%

Loic Remy

2.75

36.36%

Diafra Sakho

2.8

35.71%

Juan Mata

2.88

34.72%

Alexis

2.88

34.72%

Callum Wilson

2.9

34.48%

Graziano Pelle

2.9

34.48%

Eden Hazard

3

33.33%

Romelu Lukaku

3.05

32.79%

Harry Kane

3.1

32.26%

Mame Biram Diouf

3.3

30.30%

Odion Ighalo

3.3

30.30%

Troy Deeney

3.5

28.57%

Cameron Jerome

3.5

28.57%

Saido Berahino

3.5

28.57%

Bafetimbi Gomis

3.6

27.78%

Raheem Sterling

3.75

26.67%

Kevin de Bruyne

3.75

26.67%

Heung-Min Son

3.75

26.67%

Dimitri Payet

3.75

26.67%

Jamie Vardy

4

25.00%

Bojan

4.1

24.39%

Riyad Mahrez

4.5

22.22%

Papiss Cisse

4.5

22.22%

Rudy Gestede

4.9

20.41%

Yanick Bolasie

4.9

20.41%

Jermaine Defoe

6

16.67%

Given the fact that he hasn’t scored a league goal this season, it is surprising to find Wayne Rooney at the top of the pile with a 50% chance of scoring this weekend. The bookies have clearly considered fixture over form here, and expect England’s all-time leading goalscorer to find the net against the Black Cats at Old Trafford.

A much more enticing option, with form (3 goals in 2) and Fantasy price on his side, is Anthony Martial. He sits second in this week’s rankings and is given a 48% chance of scoring against Sunderland according to the odds.

Christian Benteke and Daniel Sturridge both come into our reckoning with the stats suggesting a 45% chance of a goal for each of the Liverpool front men. However, fitness issues and game time are respective concerns. Meanwhile, over at White Hart Lane, Harry Kane (32%) and new-boy Heung-Min Son (26%) will look to breach the City backline, whilst Sergio Aguero (43%), who loves playing against Spurs with 8 goals in 4 games, is worthy of consideration.

In light of Diego Costa’s suspension for last weekend’s antics, the goalscoring responsibility for Chelsea up at St James’ Park will fall on the shoulders of either Radamel Falcao (39%) or Loic Remy (36%). Only Mourinho knows who will lead the line, so maybe a reinvigorated Eden Hazard (33%) is the best bet from a Fantasy point of view.

Goals are expected at The King Power and at The Brittania this weekend, so form players Riyad Mahrez (22%), Jamie Vardy (25%) and Callum Wilson (34%) are all prominent in our thinking, whilst shaky defences mean Alexis Sanchez (34%) and Bojan (24%) cannot be discounted.

Elsewhere, West Ham pair Diafra Sakho (35%) and Dimitri Payet (26%) will fancy their chances against a Norwich side yet to keep a clean sheet this term, whereas Graziano Pelle (34%) and Odion Ighalo (30%) will look to enjoy home comforts and keep up their recent goalscoring exploits against Swansea and Palace respectively.

Our recommendations for your attacking line-up this week; Sergio Aguero, Anthony Martial, Callum Wilson, Eden Hazard, Riyad Mahrez, Juan Mata, Dimitri Payet.

Our recommendations for your captain; Anthony Martial and Eden Hazard.

Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his tips on Twitter.

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Viktor Enoksen

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