Bookie’s Advantage GW8

Gameweek 7 provided us with an avalanche of goals, 41 in total across the weekend, and just 2 clean sheets. Will this weekend provide more of the same? Read on to find out what the bookies have to say.

Defence

Only Manchester United, who were highly fancied at home against Sunderland, and Crystal Palace, for the first time this season, registered shutouts last weekend.  As a result, only Chris Smalling (7 points) came good from our defensive recommendations, with Asmir Begovic (2), Alberto Moreno (1) and Jose Fonte (1) all disappointing. In a gameweek with only 2 clean sheets out of a possible 20 though, this wasn’t the worst return. Nevertheless, we analyse the bookmakers defensive odds for Gameweek 8 below in an effort to improve our fortunes.

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance
Man City 1.95 51.28%
Crystal Palace 2.25 44.44%
Chelsea 2.4 41.67%
Bournemouth 2.88 34.72%
Aston Villa 2.88 34.72%
Arsenal 3 33.33%
West Ham 3.2 31.25%
Everton 3.3 30.30%
Stoke 3.3 30.30%
Norwich 3.4 29.41%
Tottenham 3.4 29.41%
Liverpool 3.5 28.57%
Swansea 3.5 28.57%
Sunderland 4 25.00%
Watford 4.33 23.09%
West Brom 4.4 22.73%
Leicester 4.5 22.22%
Man United 4.6 21.74%
Southampton 5.25 19.05%
Newcastle 15 6.67%

With a plum home tie against a toothless Newcastle side yet to score an away goal, it is no surprise to see Manchester City top this week’s clean sheet probability rankings with the bookmakers predicting a 51% chance of keeping The Magpies at bay. Having conceded in every game since Vincent Kompany’s injury though, The Sky Blues will be hoping their captain recovers in time for the clash at The Etihad on Saturday.

Fresh off their first clean sheet of the season, Crystal Palace occupy second spot in the rankings with a 44% chance of making it two in a row as they host West Brom in Saturday’s early kick off.

Chelsea host Southampton at Stamford Bridge and are given a 41% chance of regaining some of their infamous defensive solidity. The Saints have scored just 2 away goals in the league this season. Bournemouth and Aston Villa are somewhat surprisingly joint-fourth (34%) in the rankings this week. Both sides have just 1 clean sheet between them so far this season but enjoy home ties against Watford and Stoke respectively this weekend.

In terms of defensive units the bookies reckon we should avoid this round, we have Leicester’s leaky defence (22%) away to Norwich, United (21%) who face a tough trip to The Emirates, Southampton (19%) who have to travel to Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea have netted in every game this season, and Newcastle (6%) who have the unenviable task of trying to silence the offensive juggernaut that is Manchester City.

Our recommendations for your back line this week; Asmir Begovic, Simon Francis, Alexandr Kolarov, Aaron Cresswell.

Attack

Our attacking predictions fared better last weekend, with Juan Mata (14 points), Dimitri Payet (8), Anthony Martial and Eden Hazard (5 each) all contributing, so with Gameweek 7’s glut of goals still fresh in our minds, we delve into our analysis of the offensive odds for the upcoming fixtures.

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance
Sergio Aguero 1.73 57.80%
Olivier Giroud 2.7 37.04%
Loic Remy 2.7 37.04%
Kevin de Bruyne 2.75 36.36%
Theo Walcott 2.75 36.36%
Daniel Sturridge 2.8 35.71%
Glenn Murray 2.88 34.72%
Diafra Sakho 2.9 34.48%
Alexis 2.9 34.48%
Cameron Jerome 2.9 34.48%
Bafetimbi Gomis 2.9 34.48%
Romelu Lukaku 3 33.33%
Harry Kane 3 33.33%
Dwight Gayle 3 33.33%
Jermaine Defoe 3.05 32.79%
Rudy Gestede 3.1 32.26%
Eden Hazard 3.13 31.95%
Jamie Vardy 3.3 30.30%
Mame Biram Diouf 3.5 28.57%
Raheem Sterling 3.5 28.57%
Wayne Rooney 3.75 26.67%
Anthony Martial 3.75 26.67%
Graziano Pelle 3.75 26.67%
Odion Ighalo 3.75 26.67%
Dimitri Payet 4 25.00%
Saido Berahino 4.5 22.22%
Riyad Mahrez 4.5 22.22%
Sadio Mane 5 20.00%
Nathan Redmond 5.25 19.05%
Juan Mata 5.5 18.18%
Aleksandar Mitrovic 6 16.67%
Ayoze Perez 7 14.29%

With the aforementioned home tie against Newcastle on the horizon, it comes as no surprise that Sergio Aguero tops the bookies rankings this weekend with a 57% chance of scoring. Owners of the Argentine talisman will be hoping his confidence remains high after his 90th minute winner in the Champions League midweek and that he can put The Magpies to the sword. In the same game, with the bookies expecting Newcastle to struggle at The Etihad, Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling are given 36% and 28% chances of finding the back of the net respectively.

An intriguing tie awaits us on Sunday at The Emirates, where the bookmakers hand Olivier Giroud (37%), Theo Walcott (36%), and Alexis Sanchez (34%), fresh off his hat-trick against Leicester, the best chances of scoring. For the opposition, Anthony Martial and Wayne Rooney (26% each) head the bill, with form man Juan Mata (18%) less fancied, despite emerging as United’s first-choice penalty taker against Wolfsburg on Wednesday night.

Another fixture of interest this weekend is the Merseyside derby, which has a habit of being goal-friendly, with the last 6 meetings between Everton and Liverpool averaging over 2.5 goals per game. Daniel Sturridge (35%) and Romelu Lukaku (33%) both found the net in Gameweek 7 and are the men to look out for again according to the bookies.

Elsewhere, attractive propositions given form and/or fixture include Rudy Gestede (32%) and Mame Biram Diouf (28%) in what promises to be a high-scoring affair at Villa Park, red-hot Jamie Vardy (30%) against a Norwich side yet to register a shutout this season, and West Ham pair Diafra Sakho (34%) and Dimitri Payet (25%) who take on rock-bottom Sunderland at The Stadium of Light.

Our recommendations for your attacking line-up this week; Sergio Aguero, Romelu Lukaku, Jamie Vardy, Kevin de Bruyne, Alexis Sanchez, Dimitri Payet, Nathan Redmond.

Our recommendations for your captain; Sergio Aguero and Dimitri Payet.

Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his tips on Twitter.

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Viktor Enoksen

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