Bookies Advantage: Review

With the November international break now upon us, now seems like a good time to take stock and review the performances of the Bookies’ Advantage weekly squads this season so far.

The table below shows the points scored by the Bookies’ Advantage squads over Gameweeks 1 to 11, the corresponding official FPL average for the gameweek, and the performance of the Bookies’ Advantage squad versus the gameweek average.

GW

Bookies Advantage

GW average

Vs average

1

52

44

8

2

86

57

29

3

42

42

0

4

77

43

34

5

66

48

18

6

76

45

31

7

78

42

36

8

36

39

-3

9

36

42

-6

10

50

58

-8

11

74

52

22

For those who prefer to see the data in the form of a chart, this is displayed below.

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As we can see, the bookies have outperformed the FPL average in 7 of 11 gameweeks this season. They have underperformed the average 3 times, and come in bang on average once.

Of particular interest is the fact that in weeks where the Bookies’ Advantage squad beats the FPL average, it does so significantly, beating the weekly average by an average of 25 points. Yet, in weeks where the Bookies’ Advantage squad underperforms, it does not do so by much, trailing the weekly average by an average of just 6 points. In layman’s terms, when the bookies do well, they do very well compared to the average, but when they don’t, they aren’t that far off.

Totalling the scores gives the Bookies’ Advantage a season total of 673 to date. However, this is not relevant because of the number of transfers (at least 10 per week) that would be required to reshape an FPL squad for every round of fixtures.

Looking at captaincy success, the Bookies’ Advantage squad captain has delivered points (goal, assist, bonus, or any combination thereof) in 7 of the 11 gameweeks to date. However, the chosen captain has only been the highest scoring member of the squad once in 11 attempts (Sergio Aguero in Gameweek 2).

Taking a glance at the defensive side of matters, the Bookies’ Advantage picks have returned 15 out of a possible 44 clean sheets – a success rate of 34%. Whilst low, this is a relatively solid percentage compared to the season average thus far – there have been 53 clean sheets in the Premier League this season out of a possible 220, equating to 24% overall.

To summarise, there are a number of conclusions that we can make. In general, the bookmakers’ odds can help us to make better fantasy football decisions with regards to transfers, squad selection and captaincy, with a higher potential points ceiling and lower risk profile. We can also rely on the bookies to help us choose a solid defence, although we shouldn’t expect high or guaranteed returns due to the fact that the total number of clean sheets are lower this season than in previous ones. Finally, in terms of captaincy, the bookies can help us pick a reliable captain the majority of the time, although in terms of capturing mega points, the odds compilers have, so far, been less successful.

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Viktor Enoksen

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