The last time FPL was this bad, Barack Obama was still in power and saying the word “Brexit” would’ve gotten you funny looks. Whilst the world around us may have changed, FPL has remained frustratingly habitual. Even after VAR finally goes sentient and wipes out the entirety of the human race, it feels as though there will always be bad gameweeks.
And yet most FPL managers remain cautiously optimistic. The motto is simple: so long as everyone else is having a bad gameweek, it doesn’t really matter that I’m having a bad gameweek too. This, by the way, is the kind of dog-eat-dog mentality that will eventually allow our robotic oVARlords to seize the reins of power.
Do the bookies’ odds support the optimism? Let’s take a look.
Gameweek 10 Clean Sheet Odds & To 2.5+ Goals Odds
Goals galore at the Etihad
Oh look, it’s another bookies’ odds article talking about how likely Man City are to score.
But hang on a minute: this isn’t just any home fixture: this is one of the best home fixtures in the Premier League calendar. That’s why they’ve been given a seismic 74% chance of scoring over 2.5 goals.
It follows an assured Champions League performance against a defensively impressive Atalanta in which Guardiola’s men scored 5 goals. Raheem Sterling bagged 3 goals and 2 assists: a performance that his owners will be desperate to see repeated in Saturday’s early kick-off.
More doom and gloom for clean sheets
On the face of it, it’s surprising to see Liverpool among the most likely teams to keep a clean sheet when they play Spurs in Gameweek 10. Once upon a time, 40% would’ve been good enough to clinch 4th or 5th.
Things have changed since then. Nowadays, a clean sheet is a fleeting, chance occurrence: like seeing an owl during the day or getting a question right on University Challenge.
When Arsenal are up there for clean sheet odds, you know something’s not quite right.
As is often the case, Man City prove to be the exception to the rule.
Make some plans for Newcastle vs Wolves
Every now and again you get a game that promises to be a goalfest.
Newcastle vs Wolves is not one of those games.
Remarkably, Steve Bruces’ men have the best home defensive record at the moment, with just 2 goals conceded. Meanwhile, Wolves have only conceded 4 goals on the road – the league’s third best.
It’s little wonder, then, that the bookies have chosen to give both teams over 30% of keeping a shutout – with Newcastle on 33% and Wolves on a joint-second-best 40%.
Perhaps 14:00 on a Sunday is a good time to give your lawn another mow.
Gameweek 10 Anytime Goalscorers By Position
Sergio Surges Forward
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s finally happened: we have a player who has been given a higher than 70% chance of scoring. Frankly, it’s a wonder that the mainstream media haven’t picked it up yet.
The problem, of course, is that Aguero might not actually play. Also in doubt is Raheem Sterling, who tops the goalscoring odds amongst midfielders this week.
But after a somewhat rocky start to the season, including defeats to Wolves and Norwich, can City afford to exclude their top two goalscorers against Villa? I would venture to suggest that 4 days is enough recovery time for the pair, but as a non-bald man, it’s difficult to know what Pep is planning.
Ings finally getting the plaudits
It only required 3 goals in his last 3 games for Danny Ings to finally be taken seriously. The budget wonder is the top scoring FPL player over the past 3 gameweeks, but still only has a 2.3% ownership to show for it.
He now finds himself in and amongst the likes of Firmino, Wilson and Pukki as far as the bookies’ goalscoring odds are concerned.
His fate will be decided on the always popular Friday night kick-off, which will see Southampton host an Leicester side that have been very resolute at the back this season. It doesn’t bode well for the Englishman, but having scored against Chelsea, Tottenham, Wolves and Liverpool already this season, Ings might be the nearest thing to “fixture-proof” on the market at the moment.
Worrying times indeed.
All hail John Lundstram
If Official FPL had given John Lundstram his rightful position at the start of the season, he’d be a pretty mediocre pick. 1 goal and 1 assist after 8 games would’ve been about right for a budget midfielder playing for a newly promoted side.
As it is, however, he might just be the most sought-after defender in the game.
Having saved many an FPL manager from total humiliation in Gameweek 9, Lundstram now emerges joint-most-likely to score in Gameweek 10. What a time to be alive.
His side will travel to the London stadium on Saturday, where they’ll face a West Ham side that boast the fifth-worst home xGA in the league. It could be a great chance for him to add to his legendary status.