Warning: the following odds are not suitable for minors. Are you pregnant? It’s time to close this tab. Do you have any underlying heart defects? Stay well away. Perhaps you’re the type of manager who looks forward to a weekend of FPL action? Do yourself a favour and ignore everything that I have to say.
I won’t hold it against you. In fact, I’d actively discourage most demographics from reading this week’s analysis of the bookies’ odds. Only the real FPL sadists will glean any joy from this putrid corner of the internet and, to be frank, I can’t afford the public liability insurance needed for an article like this one.
Still with me? Fine. But don’t come crying to me when you keel over. It’s not my fault you don’t own any Man United defenders.
Gameweek 12 Clean Sheet Odds & To 2.5+ Goals Odds
No clean sheets forecasted
See? I warned you.
Man United top this week’s clean sheet odds with a depressingly modest 51% likelihood of keeping a clean sheet. To interpret these stats a different way: only one team is more likely to keep a clean than concede in Gameweek 12 according to the bookies.
The problem is, it’s a well known fact that the only FPL managers who own Man United defenders are your work colleagues. Nobody on Reddit or Twitter owns them, but don’t be fooled into thinking they’re unpopular picks.
Wan Bissaka is at 17% TSB. Maguire is at 13% and De Gea has an astonishing 14.3% ownership at the time of writing. In other words, this could be the week that Steve from accounts finally starts to make some ground.
No goals forecasted
On a normal week, a lack of predicted clean sheets would mean a lot of predicted goals. That’s how the fundamentals of the bookies’ odds tend to work. And yet, the perverse statisticians behind these probabilities have deemed it fit to ensure both the clean sheet odds and the 2.5+ goals odds are both at an all time low.
The outlook for Gameweek 12 is logic-defyingly bleak.
No team is odds-on to score more than 2.5 goals. In fact, only Chelsea have been given more than a 40% likelihood. Perhaps most notably, Liverpool and Manchester City are both at just 23% – their lowest of the season so far.
No hope forecasted
When the big teams play each other, it usually falls to the smaller teams to pick up the slack.
Who are Norwich playing? They usually leak goals. Oh wait, they’re playing Watford: the worst side in the league. Well maybe I can pick some Norwich players then? Oh wait, Watford actually have better odds of scoring 2.5+ goals than their struggling opponents.
How about Spurs then? They scored 4 goals in midweek – maybe now is a good time to get on them? Think again. They play the best defence in the league in Sheffield United.
To put it more elegantly: it doesn’t matter what team you’re backing this week, you’re shit out of luck m8.
Gameweek 12 Anytime Goalscorers By Position
No midfielder goals forecasted
The headline to this section isn’t even an exaggeration. Incredibly, no midfielder has been given a higher than 50% chance of scoring in Gameweek 12. That means that, as far as the bookies are concerned, no midfielder is likely to score.
Anthony Martial’s home fixture against Brighton gives him the bookies’ top plaudits amongst midfielders this week, but it speaks volumes that – outside of the realms of FPL – he isn’t really a midfielder at all. In fact, he plays ahead of Marcus Rashford.
The usual suspects – Mane, Salah and Sterling – all languish on 40%. If you want to find out what to do with them, give the latest episode of the Fantasy Weekly podcast a listen.
Abraham tops the forwards
When I compiled these charts, I had to look twice at Tammy Abraham’s odds. Is that a…a 6? By golly, I think it might be, y’know.
Tammy Abraham is the only player to have been given over 60% to get a return in Gameweek 12. Even Jamie Vardy – the best striker in the world – could only muster 57%.
Abraham is joined by a legion of Chelsea midfielders who also have a respectable chance of scoring. Pulisic, Mount, Pedro, Hudson-Odoi, Willian…any one of them could help Chelsea to a win against Crystal Palace in Saturday’s early kick-off.
Do you have the John Stones to captain someone in an early kick-off though? I certainly don’t.
Lundstram still underrated?
Sheffield United have a difficult trip to Spurs this weekend, but Lundstram’s goalscoring odds still feel under par. He is topped by Fabian Schar – who might well return from injury this weekend – and Matt Doherty, who will host Villa on Sunday afternoon.
John Lundstram has scored more goals than both of those players combined.
As our latest Standout Stats article illustrates, Lundstram’s positioning and chances are more akin to an attacking midfielder than a central defender, and his brace last weekend should only encourage his attacking movement.