If you’ve spent any time on Reddit or Twitter this week you will have encountered a much-parroted phrase: “fixture swing”. After some research, I was sad to discover that the fixture swing is not, in fact, an actual swing. You can’t even sit on it.
Instead, a “fixture swing” refers to a shift in the fixtures. In other words, it means that suddenly our FPL teams are looking rather good. Captaincy picks are tough not because there are a lack of options, but because there are too many. We’ve started to daydream about 100-point weeks and, when we look ahead at matches to come, the FDR looks like the English countryside.
Riding that wave of new-found optimism, let’s take a look at Gameweek 14’s odds.
Gameweek 14 Clean Sheet Odds & To 2.5+ Goals Odds
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Leicester are pretty good at the moment. There have been whispers – soft, but audible – of “title contenders” when Leicester’s 19/20 prospects are discussed.
Everton, meanwhile, have been poor. Last week they were beaten comprehensively at home by a Norwich side who, prior to that match, had scored just 1 away goal. The whispers surrounding the club couldn’t be further from those of Leicester’s: “relegation”, “sacking” and “a bit shite” have all been murmured in the run up to Gameweek 14.
Given the opposing fortunes of the clubs, it’s surprising to see that Leicester have only been given a 31% chance of scoring over 2.5 goals. They’ve also been given the same clean sheet odds as the likes of Wolves and Spurs: both of whom have poorer defensive records and arguably harder defensive fixtures.
City and Liverpool level for clean sheets
Personally, I think Liverpool should’ve been given a higher likelihood of keeping a clean sheet than Man City. Though both teams have been underwhelming defensively, it’s Liverpool who have the home fixture against a Brighton side who have hardly excelled on the road.
City will travel to St James’ Park for Saturday’s early kick-off: a 12th man if ever there was one. They must do so off the back of a challenging midweek UCL fixture too. Their opponents have netted in their last 3 home games: against Man United, Wolves and Bournemouth. Newcastle have also scored against Spurs and Liverpool this season too.
It seems apparent that Bruce’s men won’t shy away from this contest. Can anyone else smell a banana skin?
Goals galore for the top sides
It’s great to see 3 teams at over 50% of scoring 2.5+ goals. I’ve missed weeks like this.
Aside from those, a reinvigorated Spurs also look likely to find the net against Bournemouth, and teams like Leicester and Man United have the capacity to go big in their plum home fixtures.
For all intents and purposes, it’s going to be a high scoring FPL week. That’s what the bookies are forecasting. Clean sheets, goals, you name it.
Somehow, it all feels a little too good to be true.
Gameweek 13 Anytime Goalscorers By Position
Injured players top the list
Looking at the bookies’ odds, you’d be forgiven for assuming that the person that put them together (definitely not me) is a blithering idiot.
Tammy Abraham tops the list with 67%. Unfortunately, he got injured on Wednesday night in Chelsea’s UCL contest against Valencia. It’s almost as if these odds were erroneously put together on Tuesday morning.
Behind him is Sergio Aguero on 64%. There’s really no excuse for him being there. Whoever compiled this data (again, absolutely not me) clearly forgot that Aguero has been ruled out for the next few weeks.
Gabriel Jesus and Harry Kane are both on 60%+ too: they are this week’s actual favourites to score. I’d like to apologise on behalf of the big egit who included Abraham and Aguero ahead of them.
Suffice to say, they are unequivocally not I.
Mane edges ahead of Salah
In slimier corner of the internet, a title like that might well have more sinister connotations. In this instance, however, it’s purely about the odds. Mane is finally edging Salah.
It’s no less than he deserves. His fantastic form is unrivalled at Liverpool, a fact that stubborn Salah owners are finally having to accept. The bookies have accepted it too, giving the Senegalese midfielder a 2% higher chance of scoring. It’s hardly a huge gap, but it’s the first time this season that there’s been daylight between the pair.
Pulisic, Martial and Sterling are also amongst the midfielders over 50% to score in Gameweek 14. Brace yourself for braces.
Men with ven
There’s a little known rule in the FA handbook that states that any defender with a “van” in his name must be a regular goal scorer. (This has lead to some confusion. Lest we forget the time that Harry Maguire famously went out and bought a Ford Escort after netting a few times last season.)
Van Dijk and Van Aanholt both find themselves amongst the most likely defenders to score in Gameweek 14, despite the fact that they’ve only scored 3 goals between them so far this season. Still, with favourable fixtures on the horizon for both van owners, it feels like a return to their goal scoring ways is a matter of when, not if.
Prepare for the return of the men with ven.