Trigger warning: these are some of the worst bookies’ odds I’ve ever seen.
No team is likely to do anything.
Apart from concede.
Good luck and God speed.
Gameweek 18 Clean Sheet Odds & To 2.5+ Goals Odds
I warned you
Let’s just take a moment to indulge in the grimness of these odds.
For the first time this season, no team has been given more than a 50% chance of scoring 2.5+ goals or keeping a clean sheet. The pair of teams second most likely to score 2.5+ goals have only been given a 29% chance of doing so. The highest clean sheet probability is just 42%: 13 teams have been given less than a 30% likelihood of keeping a shutout.
These, my friends, are dark times. Forget Christmas, forget festivity, forget fun. We’re on our own now.
Man City still show potential
FPL managers might’ve moved on from Man City assets, but the bookies certainly haven’t. In their last fixture, Guardiola’s men showed a return to the league-dominating team we’ve come to know and love over the last three seasons. Much of that was owed to an imperious Kevin De Bruyne, who, despite being the most transferred out player last week, still had the audacity to go and score 19 points.
Despite a tough fixture against Leicester, Man City’s 42% clean sheet odds and 49% chance of scoring 2.5+ goals are head and shoulders above the other teams this week. Perhaps a City midfielder as a temporary replacement for Sadio Mane or Mo Salah isn’t such a terrible idea after all.
Everton poised to outperform their odds
The bookies are too cold and calculated to believe in the new manager bounce. A new manager bounce isn’t quantifiable, so it can’t be seriously considered when calculating the likelihood of a team scoring or keeping a clean sheet.
But we’re not the bookies. We’re FPL managers. That means we don’t just factor in phenomenons like the new manager bounce, we actively pursue them. With Ancelotti’s imminent arrival, the likes of Richarlison, Lucas Digne and even Dominic Calvert-Lewin are being considered by FPL minds Kean to get ahead of their rivals.
Are they fools for placing too much stock in a fictional advantage? Or is the new manager bounce the reason why the bookies might well be wrong about giving Everton such low odds at home to Arsenal?
Well don’t look at me. I don’t fucking know.
Gameweek 18 Anytime Goalscorers By Position
Sterling wins the battle of the midfielders
The midfielders are particularly interesting this week. I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Liverpool have a blank in Gameweek 18. Not only does that mean Salah and Mane aren’t there to hog the top spots: it also means that plenty of FPL managers are in the market for a one-week-punt midfielder.
Well, the jury is in. Were you hoping Son would be top dog? I’m afraid, as far as goals go, it’s Sterling who has been given the highest chance of returning.
And yet, despite his rise to the top, he still doesn’t exceed a 50% likelihood. If you’re in a position to bring in any midfielder, Son might still be the best choice. His 33% chance of netting this weekend is likely eclipsed by his tenacity for picking up assists. In fact, he has the highest xA of any player over the past 6 games.
Rashford an interesting differential captain
The captaincy debate is seldom as hotly deliberated as it is this week. Whilst managers flit between the likes of De Bruyne, Son, Vardy and Jimenez, Rashford’s away fixture against struggling Watford could be a great alternative.
The forward has the second highest xG of any player in the last 6 games, and an xA of 1.48 in that time is top 20 material too. Watford, meanwhile, have conceded the fifth highest number of goals at home this season.
With such a dearth of compelling options, the United striker certainly deserves to be in the conversation. The bookies give him the second highest chance of scoring this gameweek.
Matt Doherty pisses on the Lundstram fire
Can Matt Doherty just stop?
We all want Lundstram to be topping the goalscoring defender odds every week now. He’s always ridiculously advanced (last week, according to our Standout Stats article, he was even more advanced than Lys Mousset).
Why, then, is Matt Doherty so frequently throwing a spanner in the works? He’s scored 2 goals this season: Lundstram managed that in one game. Nobody owns him and nobody wants to own him.
Still, if you’re one of the naïve managers playing your Free Hit this week, you might want to get the Irishman involved. He’s been giving a gameweek-topping 24% of scoring at Carrow Road.