Well, I warned you that last week would be bad.
This week things are looking much rosier, such is the swing of the pendulum between home/away fixtures for the most appetising teams in the Premier League at the moment.
One thing that isn’t looking so rosy, however, is the way in which these odds are displayed. Given that it’s Christmas, our designer is taking a well-earned break from FPL duties. As such, I’d like to introduce the far duller brother of the regular graphs: the spreadsheet version. I’ve colour-coded it and everything.
Unfortunately, it looks like your back line and the forwards in your side are due for another tough week. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Gameweek 19 Clean Sheet Odds & To 2.5+ Goals Odds
Man United in unfamiliar territory
I’ll hold my hands up: sometimes I forget that Newcastle are actually a pretty decent team. You know what? I reckon the bookies might’ve forgotten too.
Bruce’s outfit currently sit 9th in the league. They have 25 points, which is level on points with – you guessed it – Man United.
And yet (there’s always an “as yet”), United have been given the highest chance of keeping a clean sheet and the second highest chance of scoring 2.5+ goals. The altitude sickness must surely be alien to a group of players who have so far failed to live up to their club’s ever-high expectations. Can they put some daylight between them and a team who, prior to the season, were one of the favourites to go down?
The bookies seem to think so. I’m not so sure.
Hold on to your Chelsea assets
Lots of people are talking about getting rid of Chelsea assets soon, apparently. Whilst the London club have been underwhelming in recent weeks, the bookies are expecting them to bounce back in their plum home fixture against a struggling Southampton.
Much has been made of Chelsea’s imperious form away from home, but the Blues won’t have many better opportunities to improve their record at Stamford Bridge. If you’ve stuck with the likes of Abraham, Mount and Pulisic, now doesn’t look like the time to shift them.
Villa low down despite opponents
Norwich have improved in recent weeks, but they remain one of the most defensively vulnerable teams in the league. It’s a surprise, therefore, to see that Villa have only been given a 31% chance of scoring 2.5+ goals against them: the same as Arsenal and less than Spurs and United.
Remember, this is a Villa side who beat Norwich 5-1 in the reverse fixture. They haven’t been in the richest vein of form, but I think they’re a little hard done by to be so low in the odds table above.
Owners of the likes of Targett and Grealish will certainly expect to profit, even if the bookies aren’t as enthusiastic.
Gameweek 19 Anytime Goalscorers By Position
With so many managers looking to get rid of Son after his straight red last gameweek (listen, I don’t want to talk about it, okay?), pricey midfielders have never been more in vogue.
Salah, Mane, Sterling and, if you’re a little more adventurous, Pogba, are all up for consideration.
But very few have mentioned Anthony Martial. The Frenchman is injury-free and starting every Man United game upfront: he’s like the John Lundstram of the goalscoring midfielders. To top it off, he’s been given the highest likelihood of any midfielder to score in Gameweek 19: 51%. If you’re Wildcarding soon, he could be a fantastic 1-2 gameweek punt.
Tammy a decent captaincy shout
Look, I know he isn’t the Tammy of 10 gameweeks ago, but Abraham remains a starter for a top six side, about to face one of the most defensively fragile teams in the league.
The bookies – savvy as they are – have spotted this, and handed Tammy the highest likelihood of any player scoring in Gameweek 19. He just edges out Marcus Rashford, who’s home fixture against Newcastle could also be fruitful.
At the rate that things are going, owning him might just be enough. His ownership has dropped over the last few weeks and, if he doesn’t return this Boxing Day, I’m confident he’ll be shipped out en masse. If that isn’t an incentive for him to perform, I’m not sure what is.
Why is Harry Maguire even there?
I’d like to take this opportunity to unequivocally state that I have never accepted bribes from any player to be featured on the bookies’ advantage article (despite plenty of offers).
But if I had of taken a bribe, it would’ve been from the likes of Harry Maguire.
The meaty centre-back is yet to score so far this season, and has only been given a 9% chance of scoring on Boxing Day. I don’t really know why I included him. There are probably other defenders a little higher than him.
Alright, fine. Maybe he slipped me a fiver. Don’t tell anyone.
Merry Christmas all! Good luck for Gameweek 19.