Welcome back to another instalment of the Bookies Advantage series where we take a look at all the relevant betting odds ahead of Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 3.
Last week just 10% of teams managed a clean sheet… Yes, that’s just two clean sheets! Which was a vast decrease from the 8 that were registered in the opening gameweek.
Clean Sheet & To Score Over 2+ Goals Odds For Gameweek 3
Tottenham’s First Clean Sheet of the Season?
Spurs have been given the highest implied probability of a clean sheet in Gameweek 3, with a 59% chance at home to Newcastle.
According to xG, they were unlucky to concede vs Aston Villa in GW1, but fortunate to not concede more against City in GW2. As things stand, they have the third-highest xGA in the league at 3.87, but this is heavily skewed by the City game.
Opposition Newcastle are one of two teams yet to amass a total of 1 xG this season, failing to score against Arsenal in Gameweek 1, before scoring a 93rd-minute consolation goal against Norwich in Gameweek 2.
Manchester is Clean
Manchester United at home to Crystal Palace is another fixture that the bookies fancy for a clean sheet. New signings Maguire & Wan-Bissaka have seemingly bolstered the United defence, which was evident in their opening day 4-0 drubbing against Chelsea.
Crystal Palace’s attack looks as unmotivated as their key man Wilfried Zaha, yielding the third-worst underlying stats in the league so far. Along with Watford, they’re also one of two teams yet to score this season.
Manchester City make up the third and final team that have a greater than 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet in Gameweek 3. They have the second-lowest xGA in the league at 1.31, which suggests they were unlucky to concede twice in their draw against Tottenham.
Whilst Bournemouth are known for playing an attacking breed of football under Eddie Howe, it has unphased Man City in the past. They’ve conceded just twice to Bournemouth in their last 6 meetings, recording 4 clean sheets in the process.
Anytime Goalscorer Odds By Position for Gameweek 3
What August Curse?
Harry Kane’s opening day brace against Aston Villa was enough to convince sceptics that his August curse has been lifted. This week’s home fixture against Steve Bruce’s Newcastle is a perfect opportunity for him to show that he’s not just an expensive Teemu Pukki.
Whilst on the subject, Teemu Pukki has surprisingly climbed his way to the third most likely striker to score in Gameweek 3, despite facing Chelsea. The bookies have a tendency to really favour the ‘bigger club’ which is a testament to Pukki’s finishing so far, or perhaps some important perspective on what we can expect from Frank Lampard’s side this year.
Cheers, Son’s Superstitious
The FA deemed Son ‘too likeable’ to play the opening two games of the season in case he thwarted their smear campaign against VAR. This weekend he returns with a 51% implied chance to score any time against this season’s whipping boys, Newcastle.
The last time these two sides met in London, the game ended 1-0 with a late winner coming from our favourite Korean. This time it’ll probably end in a late VAR decision to controversially withdraw the goal.
His ownership currently sits at just 1.7% on FPL and he will no doubt be overlooked in single-gameweek fantasy too, where he could prove a great differential in our £2,500 Gameweek 3 contest!
Bookies Dream Team