Gameweek 35 sees eight teams, including the likes of Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham and Man United, play twice. We’ve taken the betting odds, converted them into implied probabilities and created a couple of graphs that help assist with your Fantasy Premier League team selection.
Can Manchester City afford to rotate?
Following their dramatic exit from the Champions League this week, Man City’s focus will switch to domestic matters, and that switch could remove one of the main stumbling blocks to picking premium City assets for your fantasy football team, the Pep roulette.
The headache associated with choosing between City’s vast array of attacking talent is based on Guardiola’s tendency to rotate his attackers, but with just the Premier League to focus on, it figures that Pep will go full strength every week as the race for the title hots up.
With the bookies giving City an enormous 93% chance at scoring two or more goals across both fixtures in GW35, the likes of Sergio Aguero, Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling are no brainers for your FPL team.
Home comforts make Wolves an attractive option
There’s been plenty of talk as to whether Wolves’ heartbreaking FA Cup Semi-Final loss to Watford would derail their impressive return to the top flight this week.
Whilst their first Premier League game following their trip to Wembley was a poor 3-1 loss to Southampton, a return to Molineux for a double gameweek against two leaky defences in Brighton and Arsenal sees the bookies give Wolves a 63% chance at a clean sheet and a 70% chance at scoring two or more goals.
Wolves’ main man Raul Jimenez looks to be a solid pick once again this week, and the bookies give him a 66% chance of scoring, the highest of any non-top six player.
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Southampton to improve survival bid with strong double gameweek?
Their league position may not make for pleasant reading, but Southampton’s revival under Ralph Hasenhuttl has been impressive, and they followed a spirited performance against Liverpool a few weeks ago with a strong victory over Wolves at St. Mary’s last weekend.
Hasenhuttl’s men now face away trips to Newcastle and Watford and the bookies give them a 58% chance at scoring twice or more over those games.
The South Coast club aren’t exactly brimming with attacking options, but Nathan Redmond – who can be slightly hit and miss – sits just outside of the top ten for xG in the last five gameweeks and could prove to be a decent double gameweek enabler for your FPL side.
Single gameweek forwards not to be ignored
It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of a double gameweek, but if FPL history has taught us anything, it’s that succumbing to the lure of a DGW player – and ignoring in-form single gameweek players – could be fatal for your FPL team.
The most notable of the single gameweek players that the bookies fancy to score this week are Callum Wilson and Jamie Vardy. Both are given a better than 50% chance of scoring in their respective fixtures, and Vardy’s difference in output since the arrival of Brendan Rodgers catches the eye especially.
With Bournemouth facing a Fulham side with the worst defensive record in the league, and Leicester travelling to West Ham, who are given a lowly 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet by the bookies, both forwards look to be strong options.
It’s not often in an FPL season that a Liverpool asset could be seen as a differential, but in a week such as this one, where double gameweek players are hot property, Liverpool’s consistent point scorers could be the surprise package in an attractive fixture away at Cardiff.
Both Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane feature in the top ten for xG in the last five gameweeks and they both boast better than 0.5 xG per 90 in that same time span. Could having, or even captaining, one of the Reds’ attacking assets be the difference in your mini league?
Gray and Llorente lead the way as Deeney replacements
Favourable fixtures, decent form and a whole host of wildcards saw Troy Deeney included in a lot of FPL squads last week. The forward promptly got himself sent off after ten minutes of Watford’s match against Arsenal, to give managers a headache going forward.
Replacing Deeney has been at the top of many FPL players to-do list since, and two budget strikers stand out as possible replacements, Andre Gray and Fernando Llorente. Deeney’s ban gives Gray the perfect opportunity to cement a place in Javi Gracia’s side, and the bookies give him an impressive 64% chance of scoring in favourable fixtures against Huddersfield and Southampton.
Llorente is also heavily fancied by the bookies, despite Tottenham travelling to Man City in the first of their two fixtures this week, the Spaniard is given a 62% of scoring, mainly thanks to Spurs’ second fixture coming at home to a woeful Brighton side who are fighting relegation. The only question remains, have you got the cojones to pick one of these budget differentials in such a crucial gameweek?
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