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Gameweek 27: Premier League Odds As Implied Probabilities

Though some of the Premier League’s big-hitters are absent for Gameweek 27, the betting odds are still forecasting plenty of goals this weekend. We’ve taken these Premier League odds and converted them into percentages, giving FPL managers a better idea of where to expect clean sheets and goalscorers.

Clean Sheet Odds For FPL Gameweek 27

Newcastle the unlikely favourites to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 27.

Think of Newcastle and dubious football club owners, Alan Shearer’s shiny forehead and suspect reality TV shows might all come to mind. Rarely, however, are they associated with clean sheets. The Magpies have managed just seven Premier League shutouts this season, the same number as Cardiff, Leicester and Bournemouth (though it should be noted, that’s still one more than Manchester United). But in Huddersfield they host the lowest scoring team in the league (14 goals). With just eight goals notched up on their travels, it appears the bookies don’t expect Jan Siewert’s struggling side to trouble Benitez’ men.

Pogba and Rashford threaten Liverpool’s impressive record

Buoyed by last January’s introduction of Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool’s defence has been nothing short of transformative this season. They have conceded fewer goals than any other Premier League side, and boast remarkable underlying stats to back it up. Klopp’s men cannot rest on their laurels, however. The bookies are giving them just a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet during their visit to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s rejuvenated United team; no doubt bolstered by the attacking potency of Paul Pogba (2nd most shots on target this season) and Marcus Rashford (7 goals in his last 10 games).

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Premier League odds back Impressive Wolves

It speaks volumes that, despite playing away to a team with the attacking fluency of Bournemouth, the bookies are still backing Wolves as the favourites to keep a clean sheet during their visit to the Vitality Stadium on Saturday. But it’s hardly surprising either. Over the past 3 gameweeks, Wolves have conceded the lowest xGA, below the likes of Man City and Liverpool. Remarkably, the West Midlands outfit also rank 3rd for xG in the same timeframe. The omens do not look good for Bournemouth, but with recent clean sheets at home to Chelsea and West Ham, Howe’s side will certainly see this as a game in which they can profit.

Gameweek 27 Premier League Anytime Goalscorer Odds

A potential Kane return not the only worry for Burnley

Whilst Harry Kane’s possible return will rightly be grabbing the attention of the bookies, the prodigal striker’s presence shouldn’t be the only concern for Dyche’s in-form side. Heung-min Son has been in exceptional attacking form this season, having registered an attacking return against every side outside of the top-6 since Gameweek 8. It’s little wonder he tops the midfielder anytime goalscorer odds. Trying to stop him will be a Burnley side that have not lost since their 5-1 battering against Everton on Boxing Day.

West Ham show that goals don’t always come at a premium

With an impressive 3 strikers and 2 midfielders comprising the bookie’s top 10 goalscorer odds, there could definitely be some value in West Ham ownership for FPL managers this weekend. Unsurprisingly, super-signing Felipe Anderson and the hot-and-cold Marko Arnautovic lead the pack. They face a Fulham side with the highest away and overall xGA in the league – and with a 58% chance of conceding over 2.5 goals, it appears the bookies believe this unfortunate accolade will only be consolidated after Friday night’s game.

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The only way is Schlupp

We can’t finish the Bookies Advantage article without acknowledging their top prediction for defensive attacking returns this week. With a 22% implied chance of some attacking output, Jeffrey Schlupp’s goal-scoring prowess will be music to the ears of the 13 FPL managers who own the often out-of-position defender. He edges out the much more popular Matt Doherty who, despite playing in what has become a resolute Wolves defence, still finds the opportunity to maraud forward. It’s little wonder the Irish full-back is owned by over 25% of FPL managers.


Jamie Reeves

BEST FPL FINISH: 8,872 (17/18)

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